Angola’s Exit from OPEC Could Impact Oil Prices

Analysts suggest that Angola’s recent decision to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after 16 years may have a downward effect on oil prices. The move by Angola, one of OPEC’s major African producers, follows its disagreement with the organization’s production quota.

According to OPEC’s latest report, Angola had an output of 1.13 million barrels per day in November. However, the oil cartel reduced the country’s target to 1.11 million barrels per day as part of its recent ministerial meeting, leading to Angola’s decision.

The announcement was made by Angolan Oil Minister Diamantino de Azevedo after a cabinet meeting. The decision comes as several African producers, including Angola, expressed their opposition to the target reductions. This dissent resulted in the postponement of the meeting for four days in late November. Notably, Angola and Nigeria did not offer additional voluntary cuts.

Experts attribute Angola’s departure to the fact that larger OPEC members like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia are prioritizing price over volume. This stance presents challenges for smaller nations like Angola, given their financial situations in comparison to these larger players.

Gary Cunningham, the Director of Market Research at Tradition Energy, remarks that Angola’s exit is not entirely surprising. He believes that it is more about Angolan independence from production targets rather than a sudden decision. Cunningham explains that staying in OPEC would mean being controlled by these targets.

OPEC has not yet responded to requests for comment from Dow Jones Newswires.

OPEC Extends Additional Output Cuts, but Market Uncertainty Persists

After the Nov. 30 meeting, OPEC announced that Saudi Arabia and Russia would extend their voluntary additional output cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day through March. Other members also pledged to contribute around 900,000 barrels a day in voluntary reductions, resulting in a total reduction of about 2.2 million barrels a day.

However, despite these efforts, oil prices continued to decline in the following weeks. Doubts about the commitment to these cuts raised concerns about potential oversupply in the market. The increase in U.S. production, reaching a record of 13.3 million barrels a day last week, only added to these worries.

“Some members are showing signs of uneasiness, and we may witness further repercussions,” commented Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial. “The increase in supply is likely to negatively impact prices as members exceed production limits.”

Although oil futures had initially risen due to concerns about shipping delays in the Red Sea caused by Houthi rebel attacks on vessels, they fell on Thursday following Angola’s decision to exit. As of now, WTI for February delivery was down 0.7%, trading at $73.68 per barrel, while Brent for February was down 0.6%, at $79.21.

Robert Yawger, executive director for energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA, noted that Angola’s exit “increases the chances of a pump-at-will oil production showdown.”

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Giulia Petroni contributed to this report.