The Euro has broken through the bottom bound, two standard deviations below its long-term trend, signaling an end to the Euro’s long-term rise.
Technical market indicators suggest a break to the downside now, with downside resistance at $1.10; meanwhile, the U.S. dollar gained because of U.S. interest rates, with the U.S. premium over Germany increasing to 154 basis points, the largest since 2006, while the U.S. dollar premium over the German mark is up to 234 basis points for a 10 year bond because of expectations of more U.S. fiscal stimulus before year-end regardless of who gets elected.
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