Winter Weather Disrupts Refining Operations in the US

Severe winter weather conditions continue to have a significant impact on refining operations in key areas such as the U.S. Gulf Coast, New York Harbor, and the U.S. Midcontinent. This unprecedented cold snap has caused refinery downtime, although the exact duration is still uncertain. As a result, sellers have withdrawn their offers until the processing situation becomes clearer.

Middle East Events Fail to Drive Crude Demand

Despite recent violence in the Middle East, including additional Houthi attacks on shipping and a missile strike in Iraq, buyers are not actively pursuing crude oil. While this news initially led to an increase in crude oil benchmarks, recent trends have shown a decline in numbers. It is worth noting that any refinery downtime will impact U.S. crude stocks, which are currently higher than historical commercial levels.

Strong Dollar Adds Pressure

The strength of the dollar is also impacting crude benchmarks. The price of February West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has dropped by 27 cents to $72.41 per barrel, while March Brent crude has seen a slight increase of 16 cents, reaching $78.31 per barrel.

Fire and Explosion at Phillips 66 Bayway Refinery

Reports of a fire and explosion at the Phillips 66 Bayway, N.J., refinery have dominated the news, although the extent of the impact on gasoline and distillate production is still uncertain. This incident has caused margins for refined products to widen, with February ULSD experiencing a notable surge of 3.8ct, reaching $2.7073/gal. Additionally, the February RBOB contract rose by 2.93cts to $2.1496/gal. While several refineries have reportedly faced cold weather problems, traders are anticipating a warmer-than-normal week from January 22 until the end of the month.

Gulf Coast Gasoline and Power Issues

Aside from the futures market, Gulf Coast gasoline witnessed a narrowing of basis discounts to 8.5cts, resulting in spot CBOB prices around $2.065/gal. This improvement in numbers is attributed to power issues in Port Arthur and Galveston Bay, Texas.

Diesel Molecules and Eastern Seaboard Forecast

The current week has seen a significant influx of diesel molecules into the heating oil market. However, the Eastern Seaboard’s colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to transition into a more temperate forecast in the near future.

U.S./Houthi Encounters and Crude Markets

As of Tuesday, there have been no further reports of U.S./Houthi encounters. Observers suggest that any such headlines could swiftly reverse trends in the crude markets.

With a wealth of knowledge and experience, Tom Kloza is a trusted figure in the oil industry. As an OPIS reporter, he provides expert analysis and insights into market trends. His dedication to delivering high-quality content allows readers to make informed decisions.

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